The clock is once again ticking. As we approach the 12 hour mark that will have Dominick Cruz squaring off in a battle that seems very personal against the “California Kid,” Uriah Faber, we here at the Bridge wanted to weigh in with some of our predictions for the way these main card bouts will go this evening. I think my sub-.500 track record for picking UFC fights speaks for itself. Others weighing may pick objectively, but that’s no fun.
Nate Ranson’s Picks:
Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman
Dennis Siver made his first UFC appearance way back at UFC 70. His initial run at the UFC wasn’t the greatest. He went 1-3, including losses to Melvin Guillard and Gray Maynard. He took a quick break and fought over in Germany and made a quick return. Since coming back, Siver has turned his record around to 6-1, with 4 finishes. Siver’s punishing kicks to the gut have become somewhat of a calling card, but Siver is no chump on the ground either. Half of his wins come by submission. More recently, he stopped the UFC-unbeaten George Sotiropoulus jiujitsu freight train by decision.
Across from him is Matt Wiman. Apparently, Matt’s face and body are chiseled out of granite, because he’s only ever been stopped once in his career, way back in 2006. Since the knockout, he’s gone 8-2 with wins over Japanese standout Michihiro Omigawa, Thiago Tavares, and Mac Danzig. In 3 appearances in the octagon, Wiman scored three consecutive Fight of the Night awards. In his career, he’s racked up 4 knockouts, 4 submissions, and 5 decisions.
Final Decision: I’m taking Siver in this bout. His fight against Sotiropoulus showed he’s ready for the big show. Siver has the better standup in this bout and while he might not put Wiman away, it should be mostly Siver. I’ll say this one goes to the judges in a “Fight of the Night” performance. Siver takes it 29-28.
Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Coming off a highlight reel knockout win over Deathwish-associated fighter Dan Hardy, Condit looks to continue his winning ways in this potential title contender fight. Having lost only once under the Zuffa banner (between WEC and the UFC), Condit has amassed a serious history of voilence. He finished every single opponent in the WEC by submission or via TKO and has punched his way through the UFC’s rankings scoring a decision win and two knockout victories. Condit has fought all over the world including Japan’s Pancrase promotion, where he also went undefeated.
The Stun Gun won me over when for the UFC “New Years Resolution” short, he claimed he was going to “bitch slap Nate Diaz” in broken English. Unreal. Kim’s only defeat was at the hands of Karo Parisyan. However, it turned out that after the fight, Karo tested positive for painkillers and the fight was ruled a “no contest.” Other than that, The Stun Gun has only a “draw” on his record as a blemish. While Dong-hyun made a habit out of punching people silly in DEEP, most of his wins in the UFC have come via decision. However, Kim is one of the few fighters who really makes a decision interesting. His Judo is remarkable for MMA and he uses it frequently to stay in advantageous positions, and for flashy throws and takedowns.
Final Decision: I distinctly remember saying that I pick with my heart and not with my head. So, in this case, I’m going with the Stun Gun to continue his winning (or at least non-losing) ways. This fight again makes it to the judges scorecards after Kim tosses and grapples his way to a unanimous decision victory. Again, I think the scorecards read 29-28.
Ryan Bader vs. Tito Ortiz
When Bader squared off against Jon Jones, little did he know that a UFC lightweight title shot was immediately on the line for the winner. Not that I think that makes a difference at all, but that had to be an even more sour taste in his mouth after the first loss of his career. Previously undefeated, Bader was manhandled by “Jonny Bones” before tapping out to a guillotine choke in the second round. But, for some people, that’s all it takes to get motivated. Bader has the potential to come back even stronger and more dominant than before — which is a scary thought. His wrestling and striking ability are definitely his strong points, which should make for an interesting match.
While some people say Tito Ortiz is washed up and will be quick to point out his last UFC win was 5 years ago, it’s hard to fault the guy. He hasn’t had the easiest road back into the UFC in facing Chuck Liddell (when he was still invincible), Rashad Evans (unbeaten at the time), Lyoto Machida (also unbeaten at the time), Forrest Griffin, and Matt Hamill. Back to back to back to back to back. That’s a murderer’s row of opponents, even if they are a year apart. And with the exception of the Liddell and Hamill fights, it’s not like Tito didn’t come close to winning those fights. Tito is a legend in the sport and sometimes experience can count more than X’s and O’s. Tito was one of “ground and pound’s” forefathers. Don’t count out the master.
Final Deicision: As cool as it would be for Tito to pull an upset here and teach a new dog an old trick, I just don’t think it’s in the cards for him. It appears that Bader has him beat in every single aspect of the game (with the only question mark being Bader’s cardio). It’s going to be a war of attrition with these two, and I think Bader is going to have the more advantageous position for longer in this fight. I expect this to be a GRINDING 29-28 win for Bader.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben
Wanderlei Silva needs no long-winded write-up from me. He’s Wanderlei Silva, and if you don’t know who he is, look him up on YouTube. His nickname is the “Axe Murderer” and he likes to trade punches. While he hasn’t always come out the winner, he definitely knows how to make a fight exciting.
Chris Leben is pretty much the exact same fighter. He’s made a name for himself by taking more punishment than his opponent and somehow managing to resurrect himself from the grave and record a win by the third round. It’s not the prettiest fighting style you’ve ever seen, but it makes you stand up on your couch and yell at the television (or maybe that’s just me). His fight with Yoshihiro Akiyama showed the grit that Leben has. Even when he’s totally unconscious, he can still hit you like a truck.
Final Deicsion: This fight could literally go either way. Whoever it is that lands the first big show stands to be the victor, here. With Wanderlei’s age, the cards are stacked against him. But how can you bet against him? I’m picking Wanderlei by KO/TKO in round number 1. It’s going to be bloody. It’s going to be wild. And it’s going to be quick.
Champion Dominick Cruz vs. Challenger Urijah Faber
Dominick Cruz has a chip on his shoulder. The only loss in his career comes at the hands of Urijah Faber. Other than that single loss, Cruz’s record is perfect. So, when the WEC was absorbed by the UFC, Cruz became the UFC’s Bantamweight champion by default. And for the first defense of the belt, who do they throw his way? Urijah Faber. Cruz has fought tooth and nail through the WEC ranks to get where he is today and he apparently doesn’t take too kindly to some things Urijah has said or done in the past, “behind the scenes.”
“The California Kid” on the other hand has been the face of the WEC (and in part, now the UFC) for years. His ability to scrap with the best of them has earned him a place in the hearts of fight-watchers everywhere. Personally, I think his most gutsy performance was against Mike Brown, fighting with two broken hands and just throwing elbows and kicks the last two rounds. Unreal. Unfortunately, he’s lost his last three title fights (Mike Brown twice, and Jose Aldo). He hopes to to leave those past WEC woes behind in his first ever UFC title shot.
Final Decision: As much as everyone loves Faber, Cruz is just a better fighter, now. Faber is one of the best little guys around, but Cruz has just been dominant. I don’t see any way for Faber to take this fight other than by a fluke. But, with that said, I’m taking Faber via 4th round stoppage. I don’t know how or what, but the California Kid has my vote.
Tommy Hewson’s Picks:
Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman
Let me start off by saying, thanks Nate. Now I don’t have to go too much into the background of each fighter on the card haha.
It’s crazy that Siver has stepped up out of nowhere to become sort of a name in the lightweight division. His sprawl and defensive wrestling against Sotiropoulus were just beautiful, something he’ll be using quite effectively in this wrestling-heavy division.
On the other hand, Wiman himself came out of nowhere to slow the hype of Cole Miller in an extremely technical performance.
Final Decision: This isn’t an easy fight to pick and is one of the many toss ups this evening. I think if the same Siver from UFC 127 shows up tonight, we might just see Siver continue to become a threat at 155.
Siver takes this one via TKO, round 2.
Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Hyun Kim looked like a man who had run for 4 hours straight following his fight with Nate Diaz back in January. That wasn’t the first time either. With that said, he’s one of the few foreign fighters who excels predominantly in his wrestling-based grappling. Condit has struggled with wrestlers in the past, and barely beat both Ellenberger. Let us not forget just how badly Rory Macdonald made him look before an early referee stoppage. As usual in MMA, an exciting knockout victory tends to erase past performances. Such is the case with Carlos Condit.
Final Decision: An exciting fighter for sure, but unfortunately for Condit, Kim’s style is most certainly Carlos’ achilles heel. Not to mention that Korean has one hell of a chin. DHK grapples his way to a unanimous decision victory in what just might be a super competitive fight. With Carlos’ power though, it could shockingly end in his favor.
Dong Hyun Kim via unanimous decision (30-27).
Ryan Bader vs. Tito Ortiz
Tito, Tito, Tito. It seemed like only yesterday that you were literally the face of the UFC, and the organization’s most dominant champion. It’s sad to see an aging fighter on the decline but if anything can be said for Mr. Ortiz, he’s not losing in a devastating fashion. He hasn’t ACTUALLY been knocked out, sans TKO losses to Liddell.
If anything, the type of guy to truly stifle Ortiz have been precise strikers with good wrestling. Aside from Chuck, Wanderlei Silva and Vitor Belfort both came close to finishing Tito. It still amazes me to this day that not only did they allow the fight to continue against Vitor while he was blasting Tito with punches and elbows, but also that the decision was awarded to Ortiz. That’s another story for another day though.
I’ve never been completely impressed with Bader. He struggled in “victory” against Little Nogueira and looked less than stellar losing to Jon Jones. Aside from the KO, his fight against Keith Jardine wasn’t too interesting either. In my opinion, he’s certainly not the threat that the UFC makes him out to be.
Final Deicision: Even after all of that, Ryan Bader should absolutely beat Tito Ortiz in 2011. I just can’t help but go with the under dog here, and considering how Tito performed (and would have defeated if not for a point deduction) against Rashad Evans, we just might see a less than 5% chance of a victory for the “Huntington Beach Badboy.”
Tito Ortiz defeats Ryan Bader via submission.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben
I’ll keep this short and sweet. Chris Leben is an absolute brawler who packs an extremely heavy punch with a granite chin. It took a ridiculous amount of punishment from both Anderson Silva and Brian Stann to finish “The Crippler.”
Wanderlei Silva last appeared back in February 2010 and nearly stopped Michael Bisping in a unanimous decision victory. He appears faster and in better shape at middleweight, but it’s been well over a year of absence and injuries for the Brazilian who has been finished quite a few times in his last few outings.
Final Decision: Neither man will hold the UFC middleweight championship, but a victory for either man will at least throw them somewhat back into contention. It’s not Vitor-Wanderlei 2, but this is an exciting fight that is sure to please the fans. One of these sluggers will connect, and one of them will go down. I hope Wanderlei protects his chin, because these aren’t the Pride days anymore. This is such a hard fight to pick especially with how Silva has looked “lately” against heavy handed fighters. It would be best for “The Axe Murder” to fight smart and keep this as technical as he can.
Chris Leben defeats Wanderlei Silva via TKO, round 2.
Champion Dominick Cruz vs. Challenger Urijah Faber
I can’t stand Dominick Cruz. He’s everything that I hate in a champion. He’s rude, outspoken, and remained disrespectful both going into and after his only loss. His “technical” boxing and footwork has stupidly been compared to the great Ali’s, and it couldn’t be farther from it. Worse than the Machida “era,” Cruz is a guy who likes to move in with one or two strikes, then move out and run away from any offense offered up by his opponent.
Faber, chin and all, is a guy who I’ve never been a huge fan of. That isn’t to say I don’t respect him or what he’s done in the featherweight division. He was the face of 145 for a long time, and he’s looking to do the same at 135. After two good victories he managed to secure himself a title shot, and I expect for him to make the best out of this opportunity.
Final Decision: I see a lot of people picking Cruz. If he wins and does so decisively, I just might manage to respect him. Faber should unfortunately stop that and break this “code” that is Dominick Cruz. Styles and about 400 miles aren’t the only thing that separate these stupid comparisons between Lyoto Machida and Cruz and like Mauricio Rua, Urijah shocks the world and takes the rematch.
Urijah Faber defeats Dominick Cruz via submission, third round, to become the new UFC Bantamweight Champion.
Woodshatter Picks:
Cruz-As much as he annoys me, he has evolved far beyond what he used to be and Urijah is pretty much the same fighter he’s been for the past couple of years.
Leben-Wandy’s cage rust and knee surgery has me concerned. Probably an early KO for the man known by some as “The Cat Smasher.”
Bader-Despite an iffy gas tank, Bader is a better, stronger version of Tito. Tito gets beat up standing, on the ground, and pretty much everywhere else.
Condit-Carlos’ defensive wrestling is pretty bad, but I think he gets a late stoppage or 29-28 scorecard.
Siver-A bit better on the standup imo.
GrizzlyBlair Picks:
Cruz vs. Faber – Cruz will use his quick footwork to run circles around Faber, and probably do everything he can to keep the fight standing. If Faber can secure a takedown, he can submit Cruz again, but I don’t think it will happen. As much as I want to see a new champion, I think Cruz will take the decision.
Silva vs. Leben – This fight has all the makings to be an absolute war, which probably means it won’t be (ex. Franklin vs. Griffin). As much as I want to see these guys stand and trade, I don’t want to see Wand knocked out, which is probably what will happen. Leben by KO in the 2nd round.
Bader vs. Ortiz – I would like to see Ortiz pick up a win, but I think his time in mma has passed. Bader will use his wrestling to control Tito the entire fight. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Tito had something up his sleeve, but right now I’ve gotta go with Bader by decision.
Kim vs. Condit – Kim will put Condit on his back faster than GSP would, and the fight will stay there as long as Kim wants it to. Condit has the stand-up advantage, but Kim’s grappling is too much. Dong-Hyun Kim by one-sided decision.
Siver vs. Wiman – This one could go either way. Both guys have had impressive and not-so-impressive fights. I think Siver’s superior striking will help him win a unanimous decision, but Wiman could surprise us.
